Making Afghanistan wheat secure by 2022

Akbar Waziri¹, Assaudullah Habibi², Abdul Rahman Manan³, Haqiqatpal Rabbani¹, Hayatullah Kamalzai⁴, Khawaja Sayed Jan Alawi⁵, Mahmood Osmanzai⁶, Mir Aqa Dost², Nasrullah Bakhtani¹ and Rajiv Sharma^7*

¹ Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation & Livestock (MAIL), Government of Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, Kabul, Afghanistan

² Food & Agriculture Organization (FAO), Kabul, Afghanistan

³ International Centre for Agricultural Research in Dry Areas (ICARDA), Kabul, Afghanistan

⁴ Afghan National Seed Organization (ANSOR), Kabul, Afghanistan

⁵ Agricultural Research Institute of Afghanistan, Kabul, Afghanistan

⁶ Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), Kabul, Afghanistan

⁷ International Maize & Wheat Improvement Centre (CIMMYT), Kabul, Afghanistan

* Corresponding author: rk.sharma@cgiar.org

Afghanistan has been having highly erratic wheat production trend ranging from a high of over five million tonnes in 2009 and 2012 to a low of 2.8 in 2008 and 3.3 in 2011 (MAIL, 2012). However, the Afghan population has been growing steadily and added 10 million during last decade to grow to about 28 million presently. Afghanistan depends on neighbouring countries like Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Iran etc., to meet its wheat needs. Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation & Livestock (MAIL) has estimated that Afghanistan would need about seven million tonnes wheat by 2022 to achieve self sufficiency. The prospects of achieving two million tonnes jump in wheat production looks gloomy under present scenario where only 45% of wheat acreage is irrigated, which is the major source of wheat production in the country. Rainfed wheat has contributed 10 to 30% of total wheat production in past (Figure 1), thereby ruling out a reliance on rainfed acreage to achieve self sufficiency in wheat production.

Rainfed wheat contributes substantially to country’s wheat harvest during good rainfall years like 2009 and 2012. The rainfed wheat farmers tilling 55% of national wheat acreage needs to be supported with all the available technology and policy support, however, this production domain can not be a reliable source of wheat production for ensuring food security to 35 million Afghans in 2022. During last ten years, rainfed wheat has contributed about 24% of total wheat production in the country (FAO, 2013; MAIL, 2012). One could estimate rainfed wheat to contribute 0.7 million tonnes if the minimum of 10% was expected from rainfed wheat or about 1.68 million tonnes if a more moderate ten year average of 24% was expected. Assuming a more conservative 17% (average of 10 and 24%) contribution from rainfed wheat i.e. 1.19 million tonnes, the irrigated wheat would have to contribute 5.81 million tonnes (Figure 2) in 2022 to achieve the self sufficiency target. The most viable option to increase wheat productivity in Afghanistan is to bring more farmland under irrigation using the best available technology. Afghanistan brought 28,000 ha under irrigation in 2012 and therefore irrigated wheat acreage could be expected to grow by about 7% every three years. Concerted efforts need to be made to bring more area under irrigation. Proven available technologies like sprinkler irrigation should be promoted to provide supplementary irrigation wherever possible. A quick beginning can be made in districts like Ashkamish, Kalfgan, Khanabad, and Bakwa where water table is quite high. With this projected increase in area, yield per irrigated hectare would still need to increase to 4.1 metric tonnes for Afghanistan to be self-sufficient in wheat in 2022 (Table 1).

A multipronged strategy consisting of following components is needed to achieve this target:

1.  Seed System: Strengthening of seed system to offer farmers more new varieties and discourage the use of less productive, susceptible varieties. The high price of seeds is another barrier to the use of new, more nutrient use efficient varieties. Suggested ways to address this problem include educating farmers about the optimum seed rate of sowing (for example, through the use of the 2012 wheat fact sheet published by CIMMYT and MAIL), and increasing wheat farmers’ seed replacement rate from present less than 10% to at least 25%.

2. Better Crop management: Advising farmers on how to maximize production and minimize cost of production. It should cover tips on avoiding post-harvest losses; introducing a price support system for wheat; providing affordable credit and crop insurance; and providing other farming inputs in good quality and sufficient quantity at affordable prices.

3. Research and Extension System: Strengthening of the national research system (including by hiring dedicated wheat specialists) and of extension services to disseminate research results.

Afghanistan is in dire need of restructuring not only its national agricultural research system but also extension services, input supply chain, marketing infrastructure, credit availability and some kind of post harvest price protection system. A systematic approach to address these issues will definitely enable Afghanistan be wheat sufficient by 2022.

References:

Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation & Livestock (MAIL) (2012) Agricultural Prospects Report, Kabul.

FAO (2013) http:/faostat.fao.org accessed April, 2013.